Experts warned that regardless of who the next BLS commissioner is, any doubts cast on the integrity of its data -- or any loss of its authority and credibility -- could lead to far-reaching negative consequences.

by Xiong Maoling, Matthew Rusling

WASHINGTON, Aug. 5 (Xinhua) -- Dissatisfied with the latest employment data, U.S. President Donald Trump recently ordered the firing of Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), accusing her of manipulating data for political purposes -- a move that has sparked widespread criticism.

Economists and observers said there is no evidence of data falsification, and that the weak employment figures may simply reflect a worsening economy. Many are concerned that once political interference seeps into the statistical process, it could undermine the credibility of the data and ultimately harm the broader economy.

Data released on Friday showed that the unemployment rate rose in July compared to the previous month, while nonfarm payrolls increased by just 73,000 -- far below market expectations of 104,000. Meanwhile, job growth in May and June was sharply revised down to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively -- a combined 258,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

Just hours after the release of the lackluster jobs report, Trump fired McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating data for political purposes.

"I was just informed that our Country's 'Jobs Numbers' are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala's chances of Victory," Trump said in a post on Truth Social, without providing any evidence.

U.S. public opinion largely dismisses the allegation as unfounded, while critics say Trump is effectively firing the messenger. Economists say sharp downward revisions to job growth figures from the past two months may signal deeper concerns about the health of the U.S. economy that had previously been underestimated.

In a statement, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemned the removal of McEntarfer and the "unfounded accusations" leveled against the work of the agency.

"Large revisions to jobs numbers in recent years reflect not manipulation, but rather the dwindling resources afforded to statistical agencies," the NABE said.

Delays in reporting data, including federal government layoffs, may be one reason for the downward revisions in May and June's employment figures, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Xinhua.

"My guess is that the economy is moving from a phase of expansion to a phase of contraction. If right, that could cause fluctuation in the monthly numbers," said Hufbauer. "I think we are headed to a slower patch, partly because of Trump's erratic policies."

Echoing his view, Clay Ramsay, senior research associate at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, told Xinhua that "the big Fortune 500 corporations, who have the resources to respond to BLS surveys first, are not doing badly."

"The rest of the economy -- especially mid-sized firms, and government employees at state, county and city levels -- respond to the surveys a little later," he added, noting that "they are the ones already hurt by Trump's policies."

"In reality, what happened is transparent," Ramsay said.

Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Xinhua that the data on the labor market is consistent with broader economic trends. "We're seeing weak growth due to tariffs, federal firings and funding cutbacks," he said.

In an interview with ABC News, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said there's "no conceivable way" that the head of the BLS could have manipulated this number.

"The big deal is the downward revision for the two months before that. And that means there's a real possibility that we're in a stall speed kind of economy, which means we could tip over into recession," said Summers.

"That wouldn't be my prediction right now, but the risk is greater certainly than it was before. And it's a risk we don't need to be taking, but it's a risk that's made more serious by these tariffs," he added.

Despite such criticism, Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on the employment data, claiming that the jobs report was "rigged" to "make a great Republican Success look less stellar."

He also alleged that the employment data released ahead of the presidential election had been manipulated, saying the large revisions made at both points in time were intended to benefit the Democrats.

"Going forward, it's likely that the BLS staff will prevent large-scale interference with data collection and presentation," Hufbauer said. "However, Trump's appointee may be able to color statements in a way favorable to Trump."

The BLS, established in 1884, is an independent agency under the U.S. Labor Department. The bureau employs over 2,000 staff members, including many economists and survey specialists.

Experts warned that regardless of who the next BLS commissioner is, any doubts cast on the integrity of its data -- or any loss of its authority and credibility -- could lead to far-reaching negative consequences.

Erica Groshen, who served as commissioner of the BLS from 2013 to 2017, likened reliable data to the infrastructure of the economy. In an interview with NPR, she said that businesses, families and local decision-makers all need trustworthy data to make sound choices. Without such data, she warned, poor choices will follow, hurting not only individuals, but the nation as a whole.

The NABE noted that business leaders and policymakers depend on "reliable, impartial" economic data to guide decisions that affect investment, employment and the health of the economy.

"To cast doubt on the integrity of these processes for political reasons risks doing lasting harm to the institutions that support American economic stability," it said.